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Index: Effective Goal Setting

A framework for understanding decision making from first principles.

Articles

  1. A Model for Goal Setting - Goals, properties, the priority queue, distortions, and interventions.
  2. Choosing High EV Goals
    1. Taleb and Asymmetric Bets - Asymmetric bets, bounded downside, and where Talebโ€™s framework falls short.
    2. The Ratio Problem - How much floor, how many bets.
    3. Psychological Downside - The friction Taleb ignores.
    4. The Probability Question - Distinguishing worthwhile bets from lottery tickets.
    5. Identifying Unbounded Upside - Spotting fat-tail potential before you take the bet.
    6. The Floor - Where the line is between necessary floor and unnecessary conservatism.
  3. Learning to Fail
    1. The Descriptive-Prescriptive Gap - Taleb describes systems well and prescribes for individuals poorly.
    2. Exposure Therapy and OCD - An exploration of exposure therapy through the lens of OCD.
    3. Becoming a Professional Failer - Failure as a skill you practice, not a thing that happens to you.
    4. Fear and the Central Governor - The brain limits output to protect you. Fear works the same way.