Voting Rights and Turnout

This is where democracy gets real. Not abstract principles but actual people actually voting (or not).

The Long March to Universal Suffrage

The Constitution originally left voting qualifications to the states, which meant: white, male, property-owning. It took nearly two centuries to fix that.

The 26th Amendment has the best slogan in constitutional history: “Old enough to fight, old enough to vote.” When you’re drafting 18-year-olds to die in Vietnam, telling them they can’t vote becomes indefensible.

The Voting Rights Act of 1965

The heavy artillery of voting rights.

Key provisions:

• Banned literacy tests and similar devices
• Authorized federal oversight of voter registration
• Section 5 required states with a history of discrimination to get “preclearance” before changing election laws

Shelby County v. Holder (2013): The Supreme Court struck down the coverage formula that determined which states needed preclearance. The formula was outdated, said the Court. Congress could write a new one.

Congress hasn’t.

Since Shelby County, previously covered states have enacted voter ID laws, reduced early voting, and purged voter rolls. Whether these measures reduce fraud or reduce turnout is hotly contested.

Models of Voter Behavior

How do people decide who to vote for?

Rational Choice

Voters calculate costs and benefits, voting for whoever maximizes their self-interest. Homo economicus goes to the polls.

Problems: Voting itself isn’t rational by this model. Your single vote almost never decides anything. The time spent voting exceeds the expected benefit. Yet people vote anyway.

Retrospective Voting

“Are you better off than you were four years ago?” Judge incumbents on their record. Simple, requires minimal information.

This is powerful. Presidents get credit or blame for the economy regardless of whether their policies caused it.

Prospective Voting

Vote based on predictions about future performance. Campaign promises matter. Requires evaluating competing visions.

More demanding than retrospective voting. Most voters rely more on track records than promises.

Party-Line Voting

Just vote for the D or R. The party label does all the cognitive work.

Party identification is the strongest predictor of vote choice. Most people vote for their party’s candidates almost automatically.

Sociological Model

Demographics are destiny. Race, religion, income, education, gender predict voting behavior better than any policy position.

This model explains patterns but not individual choices. Not all college-educated women vote the same way.

Who Actually Votes?

Not everyone. And the people who don’t vote aren’t randomly distributed.

Demographic Factors

Age: 65+ voters dominate. 18-24? Lowest turnout. Every election cycle, pundits predict “the youth vote will surge.” It rarely does.

Education: More education equals higher turnout. Strong correlation.

Income: Wealth predicts participation. Democracy skews toward those who can afford to show up.

Race: White voters have historically had higher turnout than Black and Hispanic voters, though gaps have narrowed.

Psychological Factors

Political efficacy: Belief that your vote matters and you can influence government. Internal efficacy (confidence in your own ability) and external efficacy (belief that government responds).

Political interest: People who follow politics vote more. Obvious but important.

Civic duty: Some people vote because they believe they should, regardless of expected impact.

Why Is American Turnout So Low?

Compared to other democracies, the US is embarrassingly bad at getting people to vote. Typical presidential election turnout: around 60%. Midterms: around 40%.

Structural Barriers

Voluntary registration: Most democracies automatically register citizens. We make you do it yourself. The Motor Voter Act (1993) let you register at the DMV. It increased registration but didn’t dramatically boost turnout.

Tuesday voting: Why Tuesday? In 1845, farmers needed a day to travel to county seats without interfering with church (Sunday) or market day (Wednesday). We’re stuck with this agricultural-era relic.

Frequent elections: We vote constantly. President, Congress, state legislature, county commissioner, school board, ballot initiatives, primaries. Election fatigue is real.

Winner-Take-All System

If you’re a Democrat in Wyoming or a Republican in California, your presidential vote is basically ceremonial. Safe states suppress turnout because outcomes are predetermined.

Competitive states have higher turnout. Pennsylvania matters; Mississippi doesn’t.

Voter ID Laws

Supporters say they prevent fraud. Opponents say they prevent voting, especially by minorities, elderly, and poor people who lack ID.

The evidence suggests ID laws have modest effects on turnout but those effects fall disproportionately on Democratic-leaning groups.

Felon Disenfranchisement

About 5 million Americans can’t vote because of felony convictions. Policies vary by state: some restore rights immediately after sentence completion; some require waiting periods; some ban voting for life.

This disproportionately affects Black men, who are incarcerated at higher rates.

Increasing Turnout

What works?

Early voting: Allows voting before Election Day. Convenience increases participation.

Vote by mail: Oregon conducts all elections by mail. Turnout is above average. More states expanded mail voting during COVID-19.

Same-day registration: Let people register when they vote. Increases participation.

Automatic voter registration: Register everyone automatically (via DMV, etc.) unless they opt out. Increases registration dramatically.

Making Election Day a holiday: Works in other countries. Hasn’t happened here.

Compulsory Voting

Some democracies (Australia, Belgium) require voting. Turnout exceeds 90%.

Arguments for: More representative, citizens have duties as well as rights, reduces influence of motivated partisans.

Arguments against: Freedom includes freedom not to participate. Uninformed voters may make worse choices. Enforcing penalties is problematic.

The US is nowhere close to adopting this.

The Takeaway

Voting rights have expanded dramatically but participation remains uneven. The people who vote are older, whiter, wealthier, and more educated than the population.

Understanding voting means understanding:

• The historical expansion of suffrage
• How the Voting Rights Act worked (and how Shelby County weakened it)
• Different models of how voters decide
• Why turnout varies by demographics
• Structural barriers to participation

Who votes determines who wins. And who wins determines policy. Low turnout isn’t just a civic problem. It’s a representation problem.