Elections: Presidential and Congressional

Elections are how we select leaders. But the process is more complicated than “most votes wins.” The rules shape outcomes.

Presidential Elections

The Nomination Process

Getting nominated is often harder than winning the general election.

The Invisible Primary: Before any votes, candidates raise money, hire staff, court endorsements, and build organization. This “invisible primary” thins the field. Candidates who can’t raise money or build support drop out before votes are cast.

Primaries and Caucuses: States select delegates to the national convention through:

Primaries: State-run elections. Voters choose candidates directly or delegates pledged to candidates.

• Open primaries: Any voter can participate
• Closed primaries: Only registered party members
• Semi-open: Independents can participate but not opposing party members

Caucuses: Party-run meetings. Participants gather, discuss, and vote in a public setting. More time-intensive, lower turnout, favors organized campaigns with dedicated supporters.

Frontloading: States move their contests earlier for more influence. Iowa and New Hampshire guard their first-in-the-nation status jealously. Early wins create momentum; early losses can end campaigns.

Super Tuesday: Multiple large states vote on the same day. Often decisive.

Delegate math: Democrats use proportional allocation; candidates get delegates proportional to votes. Republicans vary by state. You need a majority of delegates to win the nomination.

National Convention: Officially nominate the candidate, adopt the platform, unify the party. Mostly ceremonial now since the nominee is usually known beforehand. But contested conventions remain possible.

The General Election

Electoral College Math:

• 538 total electors (435 House + 100 Senate + 3 for D.C.)
• Need 270 to win
• Winner-take-all in 48 states; Maine and Nebraska split by congressional district

Electors are chosen by state popular vote but vote as a bloc. Win a state by 1 vote or 1 million votes, you get all its electors (in most states).

Battleground States: Because of winner-take-all, campaigns focus entirely on competitive states. Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia. California and Texas? Ignored. Their outcomes are predetermined.

If Nobody Hits 270: The House decides, but each state delegation gets one vote, not each representative. Wyoming equals California. The Senate picks the vice president. This hasn’t happened since 1824.

The Electoral College Debate

Arguments For:

• Preserves federalism
• Requires building a geographically broad coalition
• Contains fraud within states
• Stabilizes the two-party system
• Gives small states more voice

Arguments Against:

• Can produce winners who lose the popular vote (2000, 2016)
• Ignores safe states entirely
• Small states are overrepresented (Wyoming: 1 elector per ~190,000 people; California: 1 per ~720,000)
• Discourages turnout in non-competitive states

Changing it requires a constitutional amendment or the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (states agree to give their electors to the national popular vote winner once states with 270 total electors sign on).

Congressional Elections

House Elections

All 435 seats up every two years. Districts are single-member, winner-take-all.

Key dynamics:

• Local elections with local issues
• Incumbency advantage is massive
• Presidential coattails can help or hurt
• Redistricting shapes the battlefield

Senate Elections

One-third of 100 seats up every two years (staggered six-year terms). Statewide constituencies.

Key dynamics:

• Higher profile than House races
• More expensive campaigns
• Less incumbency advantage than House
• State partisanship increasingly determines outcomes

Incumbency Advantage

Incumbents win about 90% of House races. Why?

Name recognition: Voters know who they are.

Franking privilege: Free mail to constituents.

Credit claiming: Casework, constituency service. “I got this for our district.”

Position taking: Take popular positions, avoid controversial ones.

Campaign finance: Donors back winners. Incumbents raise more money.

Gerrymandering: Districts drawn to protect them.

Redistricting and Gerrymandering

After each Census, House districts are redrawn to reflect population changes.

Who draws the lines: Usually state legislatures. Sometimes independent commissions. The party in power controls the process in most states.

Gerrymandering techniques:

Packing: Concentrate opponents in few districts. They win big but in fewer places.

Cracking: Spread opponents across many districts. They never reach a majority.

Key cases:

Shaw v. Reno (1993): Racial gerrymandering (drawing districts solely based on race) violates the Equal Protection Clause.

Rucho v. Common Cause (2019): Partisan gerrymandering is a “political question” federal courts won’t touch. States can gerrymander for partisan advantage without federal judicial review.

So: racial gerrymanders are unconstitutional. Partisan gerrymanders are constitutional (at the federal level). Some state courts have intervened under state constitutions.

Midterm Elections

Elections held in the middle of a presidential term.

Patterns:

• Lower turnout than presidential years
• President’s party almost always loses seats
• Average loss: about 25 House seats
• Serves as referendum on the president
• Highly motivated opposition

Why does the president’s party lose? Regression to the mean. Presidential elections bring out marginal voters who support the winner. Midterms have lower turnout, and the opposition is more motivated.

Safe Seats and Competitive Seats

Most House seats are “safe” for one party or the other. Gerrymandering plus geographic sorting means few districts are genuinely competitive.

Consequences:

• Primary elections matter more than general elections in safe seats
• Primary voters are more ideologically extreme
• Incumbents fear primary challenges more than general election opponents
• This contributes to polarization

Electoral Rules Shape Outcomes

The process isn’t neutral. Rules advantage some and disadvantage others.

Winner-take-all favors: Major parties, geographically concentrated support, candidates who can build coalitions.

Primaries favor: Intense supporters, ideologically committed voters, organized campaigns.

The Electoral College favors: Small states (somewhat), battleground states (enormously).

Gerrymandering favors: The party that draws the lines.

Different rules would produce different outcomes. The rules we have aren’t inevitable; they’re choices.

The Takeaway

American elections are shaped by constitutional design, historical accident, and strategic manipulation.

Understanding elections means understanding:

• How the nomination process works
• Electoral College math and strategy
• Why incumbents dominate
• How redistricting shapes competition
• Why midterms punish the president’s party
• How rules determine who wins

Elections are supposed to translate public preferences into government. How well they do that depends on rules that are themselves contested.